Melody Kilbank

Well, the data coming out from the REALTORS(R) Association of Edmonton is looking pretty grim for the month of October 2018!! The good news is, the City of Edmonton ONLY statistics aren’t as bad. But they aren’t great either.

All residential sales were down 4% year over year and down 4.6% month over month. There are 7.3 months of inventory which favors buyers.

Single family dwellings were down 1.4% year over year and down .3% month over month with 6.5 months of inventory. This is the first month in the past year or more the inventory has passed 6 months. Now we are clearly in a buyers market for houses in Edmonton.

Condominiums have had a drastic drop to 10.2% year over year and 10.3% month over month. They continue to have over 8 months of inventory.

Duplex/Rowhouses are up .4% year over year. This is the only stat that showed the upward trend this month. But down 3.8% month over month. The inventory has tipped the scales to 8 months which for the first time in over a year has the buyers at the advantage to purchase this kind of product.

With pending threats of rising interest rates, if you know someone who is wanting to purchase they need to lock in their rate with their lender and take advantage of the soft condo market.

Call me with your referrals or for professional representation. I’m here to help.

“The overall real estate market is softening as the summer selling season begins to slow,” says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Darcy Torhjelm. “Average prices are decreasing and that may continue in the rest of the year due to the high inventory levels.

City of Edmonton average price fell .6% month over month and 2.9% year over year. Single Family dwellings dropped 1.1% but stayed the same month over month. And condos dropped 7.3% year over year and were up 4.5% month over month. Duplex/Rowhouses showed a .1% increase year over year but a 2.5% drop month over month.

Inventory levels are in a balanced market position with the exception of condos which are favoring buyers with over 8 months of inventory.

This is now the second month in a row prices have decreased month/month and year over year. Only time will tell if this is just a seasonal softening or if it will be realized for the near future.

Whether you are looking to buy or sell, call me for professional representation.

Check out my video for the June 2018 Market Report for the City of Edmonton.

From my own personal experience, I have learned some tips to help you succeed when you buy a property to fix and flip. Here is my Top 10 list.
1. You don’t have to be a handy man. But you do have to have the ability to give overall direction to a large project and see the big picture.
2. Choose your location well. Good neighborhoods always make for a better resale value.
3. Avoid the weird and whacky. A good floor plan is also good for resale. If you view a house which has oddities that can’t be fixed, this is a deterrent to potential buyers.
4. Hire a decorator/designer to give you advice on color/finishes. Don’t rely on your own choices. Professional color choices don’t require more time and they show and sell much better.
5. Do your numbers ahead of time. Work with a template and calculate all foreseeable costs, including carrying costs. Add a little extra for the unpredictable.
6. Work with an experience REALTOR® who knows the buying market and selling market. They can give you the best advice from current market statistics for your purchase price and resale price. They also may have referrals to reliable trades.
7. Establish a timeline for your work projects and use that as a guideline for lining up your trades. Try to get measurements and have your designer/decorator view the property prior to possession.
8. Time is money and anything you can do to overlap projects saves time.
9. Always think RESALE, not personal preference.
10. Quality work is rewarded in the purchase price. Buyers notice details. Don’t take short cuts.
Call me to help you with your purchase or sale! My marketing strategy is aggressive, and it got my selling clients 95.9% list to purchase price in 2017.

Spring has NOT sprung in Edmonton as yet! Typically by April we start to see a lot of buying and selling activity in the real estate market. This year seems to be an exception. Anecdotally, the cooler temperatures, snow falls, and early Easter seem to be the causes.
That being said, the City of Edmonton has seen a small drop in the number of months of inventory, month over month, in all product categories for March 2018.
Also prices have soften in all product categories year over year. And all product categories have softened month over month with the exception of Single Family Dwellings. Average prices have increased by 1.3% for houses from February to March 2018.
What does this mean for sellers? You still have time to get your home on the market if you were hoping for a Spring 2018 sale.
For Buyers this means there is still lots of inventory to choose from and prices haven’t caught up with the typical up tick in Spring. You still have time to buy your home at Winter prices.
Make sure that whatever you do in buying or selling you are represented by a professional real estate associate. Choose me and I will save you time, money and relieve much of the stress of making these kinds of transitions.

Every year I look forward to the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Annual Housing Forecast Seminar. It gives us a picture into the coming year about prices and market activity.

My summary of the predictions is simple. It’s going to be a flat year for Edmonton and area real estate.

Here are the predictions.

The NUMBER OF SALES, Single Family Dwellings are up .88% while PRICES are expected to soften by .9%.

Condos are predicted to fall 2.4% in NUMBER OF SALES while PRICES may drop by 2%.

Duplex and Rowhouses are up 3.74% in NUMBER OF SALES while PRICES will only increase by .2%.

All residential, for NUMBER OF SALES may increase by .73% while PRICES are expected to drop by .9%.

The story behind some of these numbers is the INVENTORY, which is expected to increase by 1.96% for Single family dwellings, 4.42% for Condos, and .68% for Duplex and Rowhouses.

What does all this mean? 2018 will be a great time to buy a condo. There will be stable prices for houses on both sides of the transaction. If one is downsizing from a house to a condo, you won’t see inflated pricing with your sell, but will get a good deal on your purchase. And the starter home market of duplex and rowhouses will be the hot spot of the market.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has published it’s findings for the rental market research for 2017. “Vacancy rates move lower as improving labour market conditions and positive international migration have contributed to stronger rental demand.” says Lai Sing Louie, Regional Economist for Prairies and Territories.

Alberta urban centre rental vacancy rates were down to 7.5% in October 2017 from 8.1% in October 2016. However vacancy rates in Edmonton have remained relatively unchanged.

Rental rates in Alberta have declined for the second year in a row. Down by 1.1% in 2017 and previously in 2016 down by 5.0%. The average 2 bedroom rental in Edmonton was $1215.

As our economic conditions recover, it is the international migration that has had a positive effect on Alberta. We continue to attract people from other countries to live, work, and develop a life in our City. This ultimately effects where and how people live.

The Edmonton vacancy rate for 2017 is 7%. Bachelor suites are 7.3%, 1 and 2 Bedroom apartments are 7.0% and 3 Bedroom apartments are 5.9% vacancy rated.

So all this means to landlords is the year ahead may not see much cash flow increase in your investment but with all real estate, principle pay down will be your greatest reward this past year!

I posted this great article regarding the positive effects of home ownership to my FB page (Melody Kilbank REALTOR.) https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2017/05/case-for-homeownership/
Buyers are up against some affordability challenges. Not just in the Toronto and Vancouver markets, but all over the country. And not just because of home prices. The Government’s new regulations regarding mortgage qualifying rates has hurt first time home buyers.
The author of the article, Sean Speer*, summarizes the major social and economic benefits to home ownership. He summarizes several studies over the past 5 years which have shown home ownership makes our communities great! I found this information enlightening. Home ownership benefits:
• Creates upward mobility for children by providing a more stable home
• Greater participation in social and political activities
• Greater number of children finishing high school and post secondary education
• Reduces criminal activity over time
• Negative effect on violent and property crimes
• Better quality of home life, greater cognitive abilities, fewer child behavior problems
• Raises educational attainment, earnings and welfare independence in young adults
“…the evidence shows that the benefits are not just limited to homeowners. Society benefits when families have access to affordable, responsible homeownership and thus government policy should continue to support it.” Sean Speer*
Call me if you know someone who would like to be a part of this kind of positive change!

*Sean Speer, Government policy specialist, … previously served as senior economic adviser and special adviser to former prime minister Stephen Harper …has written extensively about federal policy issues

We’ve all been awaiting the Government of Alberta’s incentives to recoup some of the expenses we are now paying because of the carbon tax. The news was released this past week. Here is a quick summary. There are currently 3 areas of savings.
1. Instantly at the till on energy efficient products such as, LED light bulbs, programmable thermostats, lighting control switches, power bars, motion sensors, timer, clothes lines and low flow faucets. YOU MUST ACT QUICKLY as these savings are available until June 11 ONLY.
2. Home improvement rebates are available for insulations, windows and tankless hot water heaters. You must use their contractors and they will walk you through the savings and process.
3. Online rebates are available on refrigerators, washer and smart thermostats. $100.00 per appliance. Filling out an application and submitting a receipt gets you some money back.
For more information visit https://www.efficiencyalberta.ca/. A list of stores, contractors and retailers is provided.

A 4th area of savings is still in the works, and is to roll out this summer. Solar energy! The Government is still seeking a third party to deliver a program!
Happy savings!!!

TD Economics has reported an update to the GDP predictions for 2017-2018. “Alberta is expected to move from the worst performing provincial economy in 2016 to the best in 2017 and 2018 with economic activity expanding by more than 2%.” (March 27, 2017)
Economists* are attributing a key part of the improved growth story relates to housing. More specifically residential construction is on the rise.
By 2018 Alberta and Saskatchewan are at the top of the GDP list with both provinces seeing a stronger 2017 than 2018.
Their prediction for oil prices is that it will hold at current levels until late in the year and into 2018 when prices are expected rise up to mid US$50 per barrel. This uptick in oil will have a spill over effect in boosting manufacturing, transportation and engineering construction.
Another contributing factor to the rise in spending is the reconstruction in Fort McMurray.
Overall Canada’s GDP will also be stronger in 2017 than 2018.
Reports such as these from experts, give hope to hard working Albertans! More reports like this will increases the consumer confidence and provide more stability for real estate purchasing and investing.
2017 is predicted to be a stronger year. So if you are thinking of buying or selling NOW is the time to put your plans into action. Call me for any residential real estate service you require!

* Beata Caranci, VP & Chief Economist, Michael Dolega, Director & Senior Economist, Dina Ignjatovic, Economist